A Goaltending Situation That Cannot Stay Still
Vancouver enters 2026-27 with an obvious problem in goal: there are more options than clean answers. Thatcher Demko, Kevin Lankinen, and Nikita Tolopilo each have a case to make, but the roster can only support so much overlap.
That is what makes Tolopilo so interesting. He is the one whose future is least settled and most tied to the team’s larger direction. At 26, he is old enough to help now and young enough to fit a longer reset, which is why his spot is hard to pin down.
What Last Season Revealed
Tolopilo’s 2025-26 season was split between the AHL and NHL, and the split told two different stories. In the minors, he logged 19 games and posted a 3.07 goals-against average with a .897 save percentage. In the NHL, he appeared in 21 games and finished with a 3.61 goals-against average and an .881 save percentage.
Those numbers were not pretty, and they made his year look inconsistent. Still, the full picture is more useful than the stat line alone. He was asked to move back and forth, adjust on the fly, and absorb workload without much rhythm. That is a difficult assignment for any goalie, especially one trying to prove he belongs in a crowded depth chart.
The Games That Kept Him Relevant
Even in a choppy season, Tolopilo had stretches that deserved a second look. In late January he made three straight starts and allowed only four total goals, which was enough to keep the conversation alive even though the team in front of him did not support him consistently.
One night stood out more than the others. He stopped 32 shots in a 2-0 win and looked like he had his first career shutout secured, only for a brief league concussion-protocol interruption to shift the record away from him. A few days later, he turned away 39 shots in a shootout loss to Toronto and denied Auston Matthews in overtime on a penalty shot. Goaltenders earn trust through moments like that.
The finish to the year was tougher, but not empty. After another stint in the AHL, he returned to Vancouver and played 11 more games from March into April, starting eight. He closed with a win over Anaheim, stopping 24 of 27 shots, which at least left a better final impression than the season’s rough middle stretch.
Three Possible Paths Forward
The cleanest outcome is a trade. Tolopilo now has enough NHL exposure and enough flashes of quality to interest teams that need a young goalie with some real game experience. Vancouver, meanwhile, does not have the luxury of carrying three goalies for long without sacrificing something else on the roster.
The second path is more awkward: the Canucks keep all three. That would buy insurance, but it would also create constant pressure on ice time and repetition. Goaltenders develop best when they are actually playing, and a three-man rotation usually leaves someone cold.
The third path is the one that depends on major movement elsewhere. If Demko or Lankinen becomes available through a trade, Tolopilo could suddenly move up the ladder by default. That is not the likeliest outcome, but it is the one that fits the team’s age curve best. Vancouver’s veterans do not line up neatly with the timeline of a retool, while Tolopilo sits much closer to it.
What He Needs in Camp
Training camp is where Tolopilo can make the decision easier for management. He does not need a perfect preseason, but he does need enough consistency to make himself hard to ignore. If he looks sharp, the front office has incentive to explore a trade market. If he looks ordinary, he still helps by reminding other teams that he is available and capable of more than backup duty.
The key is simple: every start has to matter. He cannot afford to drift into the background because Vancouver’s crease is already too crowded for that. A strong camp would not solve everything, but it could push him toward a larger role somewhere, whether that is in Vancouver or elsewhere.
What 2026-27 Most Likely Looks Like
The most realistic forecast is that Tolopilo ends up with more responsibility than he had in 2025-26, but not necessarily in Vancouver. If he stays with the Canucks, a rotation of roughly 30 to 35 starts feels reasonable. If he is moved, the total could climb into the 40s depending on the new team’s needs.
One thing does feel certain: he is not headed back to the AHL as a long-term plan. Vancouver is past the stage of hiding him in the minors, and another club would not trade for him just to park him there. He will either be part of the NHL picture in Vancouver or part of it somewhere else.
The Bottom Line
Tolopilo does not need to be the best goalie on the roster to matter. He just needs to be the one whose age, experience, and opportunity line up with the direction Vancouver wants to take. That makes him one of the more useful and most movable pieces on the board.
The next few weeks will say a lot about him. In a crowded crease, the goalie with the most to gain is usually the one the team cannot easily ignore.
